Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 21.425003 23.253987 25.221684 27.505336 30.094511 32.952811 36.366051
2025-12-21 18.961286 21.564336 24.561858 28.308452 32.922762 38.497083 45.862761
2025-12-28 16.719015 19.678263 23.263897 28.011629 34.264778 42.420077 54.221452
2026-01-04 15.161319 18.342777 22.360661 27.944446 35.739979 46.635564 63.824882
2026-01-11 14.093469 17.456317 21.858150 28.243940 37.647363 51.683027 75.816176
2026-01-18 13.077267 16.505871 21.126021 28.071427 38.773903 55.700213 87.205926
2026-01-25 12.221985 15.676652 20.449876 27.853215 39.736343 59.564399 99.411723
2026-02-01 11.543866 15.024006 19.943408 27.797892 40.901954 63.939567 113.989523
2026-02-08 10.920544 14.392760 19.399459 27.600840 41.768883 67.911530 129.146153
2026-02-15 10.359935 13.806784 18.865634 27.346394 42.473849 71.688464 145.361573
2026-02-22 9.865040 13.280822 18.375751 27.101682 43.142182 75.509595 163.399185
2026-03-01 9.442508 12.833698 17.970019 26.949142 43.946298 79.777714 184.838997
2026-03-08 9.019965 12.368505 17.513359 26.683441 44.537490 83.826969 208.448681
2026-03-15 8.876313 12.322905 17.725900 27.625209 47.700668 94.796901 263.833684
2026-03-22 8.521584 11.924927 17.329990 27.413659 48.426849 99.936885 302.203521
2026-03-29 8.228790 11.608094 17.046300 27.381465 49.536771 106.448566 353.618481
2026-04-05 8.017288 11.408919 16.946226 27.687099 51.454379 115.887503 432.407062
2026-04-12 7.744104 11.094307 16.625159 27.525791 52.259597 122.310719 505.017586
2026-04-19 7.483070 10.786413 16.295990 27.316352 52.918481 128.541515 588.875389
2026-04-26 7.264072 10.537407 16.055168 27.263752 53.961608 136.496067 705.609523
2026-05-03 7.039058 10.267671 15.760826 27.072581 54.624000 143.417852 834.894558
2026-05-10 6.820293 9.998785 15.452694 26.825245 55.105211 149.922698 985.169538
2026-05-17 6.616130 9.746095 15.160397 26.587222 55.580795 156.680669 1171.709531